Stochastic simulation model for spatial-temporal development of a fungal plant disease spread by wind.

Hanne Østergård, Risø National Laboratory, Denmark.

email: hanne.oestergaard@risoe.dk

The model describes the spatial-temporal disease development from a point source. The model demonstrates the influence of spore density, infection efficiency and lesion growth on plant disease development in space and time and the consequences of stochastic events during the infection processes. The leaves are organized spatially into cell units such that the growth of the lesions can be determined spatially. Further the leaves are organised into growing plants and the spatial distribution of infections on plants are simulated with a distance of few meters. This kind of models has earlier been described as models for cohorts of lesions on cohorts of leaves. The model will be used also for disease development in a variety mixture.